Our Key Race Election Prediction
We have made no official endorsements in this election cycle and keeping with that practice, we will not be making any last minute endorsements in Tuesday’s election. However, several months ago and throughout the cycle we have highlighted a variety of races that are seen as key races in Texas and the U.S. Here’s our prediction of how these key races turn out.
Obama vs. Romney
Romney will undoubtedly carry Texas and its 38 electoral college votes. We expect Romney to carry Texas with an excess of 60% of the vote. However, we do not believe the remaining portions of the country will follow Texas’ lead. After reviewing polling data, early vote numbers, commentary and other sources, our swing state predictions includes the following:
Florida – Romney
Nevada – Obama
New Hampshire – Obama
Virginia – Obama
North Carolina – Obama
Wisconsin – Obama
Iowa – Obama
Colorado – Obama
Out of the states above, our only real “stretch” is North Carolina. North Carolina is a state that Obama won by only 14,000 votes four years ago. Recent polling has seemed to favor Romney in North Carolina, however with the high voter turn out in early voting and the amazing number of new voters registered, we think this will be the surprise state of the night. Either way, we are predicting a very close win for Obama in the popular vote but a substantial win in the electoral college (318 to 235).
Ted Cruz vs. Paul Sadler (U.S. Senate)
The real battle here was in the primary. Cruz wins with 65% of the vote.
Wendy Davis vs. Mark Shelton (Ft. Worth – TX Senate District 10)
This is arguably the most watched race in the state of Texas. We highlighted the race early on here, and brought you videos of both candidates. Both sides have spent huge amounts of money, and this is a race that we see as being still very close.
In the end, we give the edge to Wendy Davis. Davis stands out on women’s issues and public education and is seen by many as an independent voice in the Senate. Further, we believe Davis has simply out-worked Dr. Shelton in this race and when the vote is tallied it will be a very close victory for Davis.
Pete Gallego vs. Quico Canseco (Congressional District 23)
This is another nail biter. This race has been marked by huge amounts of money spent on TV and direct mail by both candidates with mudslinging at every turn.
Canseco recently sent voters in CD-23 a mailer attacking Gallego, a Catholic, for denouncing God. The mailer claimed that “Gallego supporters were asked three times to include God as part of their platform and three times they said no to God.” While some delegates at the Democratic National Convention did fail in an attempt to remove the word “God” from their party platform, we find Canseco’s accusation to be false and very misleading. Gallego, who was not in attendance at the Democratic National Convention, is a devout Catholic.
Gallego immediately countered the attack and began circulating a petition which was signed by over 700 voters who share Gallego’s belief that an image of Jesus has no place in a political attack ad. Three prominent Texas Republicans even stepped up for Gallego:
State Rep. Burt Solomons (R-Carrollton) said, “Religion brings us together. Jesus should not be a prop for any campaign. I’ve known Pete a long time. We don’t agree on every issue, but he’s an honorable man. The constituents would better be served if Congressman Canseco stuck to the issues.”
“Pete and I served in the Texas House together for nearly 20 years,” added former State Rep. David Swinford (R-Dumas). “He is an honest, Christian man. Congressman Canseco’s use of an image of Jesus in an attack ad against Pete is just plain wrong.”
Former State Rep. Elvira Reyna (R-Mesquite) said, “No political party has a corner on God. God is neither Republican nor Democrat and it saddens me that Congressman Canseco has chosen to use a sacred image on a political mail piece.”
Despite the fact that voters likely do not know what to believe in light of all the mud flying by the ballot box, we believe the incumbent Canseco will be ousted in this race. We believe Gallego’s field operation to be the stronger of the two. This operation will deliver what we expect to be high voter turn out in the West Texas portion of the district in addition to high early voter turnout throughout the district. However, the high early voter turnout in Bexar County may not necessarily aid Gallego given it’s Canseco’s hometown. In any event, this will be a close election with Gallego eking it out.
Nick Lampson vs. Randy Weber (Congressional District 14)
This is one of the few races we highlighted earlier in the year as a race to watch. This is a congressional race without an incumbent as it’s the seat left open by Ron Paul’s retirement from Congress. At first glance, this is a race that was drawn for a republican to win. Insiders will argue that this is anywhere from a 56% – 58% republican district. We say not so fast.
Although we believe this is going to be a very tight race, we believe the seat goes to Lampson. Lampson, a democrat, has painted himself as a moderate interested in supporting the district in Congress. He has run on a long record as he has served in Congress many times before. Further, Lampson has strong name recognition throughout the district. Lampson, a native of Beaumont, will also benefit greatly from the high voter turnout in Jefferson County. Although Jefferson County is not the largest part of the district, we can only believe that this portion of the district will swing heavily to Lampson.
We also believe Randy Weber has run somewhat of an inept campaign. Although he raised nearly as much as Lampson for the race, ten days out he only had approximately $50,000 cash on hand to Lampson’s $425,000. This difference has shown up dramatically on TV in Galveston and Beaumont in the last days of the campaign.
Finally, we simply believe Lampson has out-worked Weber for this seat. Lampson has hit the streets, knocked on doors and seemingly visited with everyone in the district. This will pay dividends on election day. Although this is a race insiders say Weber should win, we believe it’s a race Lampson will win.
Sarah Davis vs. Ann Johnson (Texas House District 134)
Matt Stillwell vs. Tony Dale (Texas House District 136)
Jason Isaac vs. John Adams (Texas House District 45)
Yvonne Gonzalez Toureilles vs. J.M. Lozano (Texas House District 43)
Craig Eiland vs. Wayne Faircloth (Texas House District 23)
Robert Miklos vs. Kenneth Sheets (Texas House District 107)
Bobby Guerra vs. Miriam Martinez (Texas House District 41)
Phillip Cortez vs. John Garza (Texas House District 117)
Please feel free to agree, disagree or add additional races in the comment section below.